It was eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach admonished him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his coat, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to answer. History, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing in many games, while the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent before hoping their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more versus the Red Devils.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the top corner week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Could it be a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned the young forward now would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the North End after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
