Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
